Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer - Pipeline set to offer only modest improvements

Non-small cell lung cancer accounts for about 80% of all lung cancers. In 2008, the incidence of NSCLC is forecast to exceed 367,000 new cases in the seven major pharmaceutical markets. The high incidence of the disease and the large unmet need make NSCLC an attractive market for new drug development.

Datamonitor has identified 104 drugs in the NSCLC pipeline, 15% of which are in late-phase development. Collectively, these late-phase products have a forecast sales potential of up to $4,056m by 2017 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets.

Molecular targeted therapies are the focus of R&D in NSCLC, accounting for 60% of the entire pipeline. Of the molecular targeted therapies in late-phase development, Erbitux (cetuximab; ImClone/Merck Serono/Bristol-Myers Squibb) is forecast to achieve the highest level of sales, with $473m by 2017.

The current late-phase pipeline is unlikely to satisfy the high level of unmet need in the treatment of NSCLC. However, pipeline drugs are still likely to realize notable uptake, despite offering only incremental improvements in efficacy or toxicity.

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