Diabetes market growth driven by epidemiological trends and rich pipeline
Datamonitor expects the antidiabetics market to grow to $34.8 billion in 2019 for the seven major markets. Januvia will become the leading franchise from 2012 after patent expiry of Actos, with franchise sales reaching nearly $6 billion by 2019. Pipeline candidates will make up 30% of sales in 2019, with once-weekly GLP-1 agonists and new long-acting insulin analogs meeting success.
The antidiabetics market in the seven major markets is expected to grow from $22,806 million in 2009 to $34,820 million in 2019, with a 4% CAGR. Growth is driven by the epidemiological expansion of the market, fuelled by the obesity epidemic and improved diagnosis rates.
Januvia will be the leading oral antidiabetic agent after the patent expiry of Actos. Its relatively benign safety profile has led to rapid growth since launching in 2006, despite a poorer efficacy than other oral antidiabetics. Marketed and pipeline class competitors are seen as "me-too" drugs and will struggle to attract share away from Januvia.
New products launched from the highly active antidiabetic pipeline will command 30% ($10,570m) of the market in 2019. Highest growth will be seen for the GLP-1 agonists, with the first once-weekly product, Bydureon, expected to take share from within the class, insulins and oral antidiabetics.
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