Asthma/COPD - Little long-term future for long-acting single-agent inhalers?

The respiratory market will continue to grow with the same rate over the next few years, with a slight dip between 2012 and 2015 due to the patent expiries of leading products. Growth is driven by the expansion of sales in existing classes, the launch of major new products with safety and convenience advantages, and the results of several landmark trials.

Datamonitor expects Asthma/COPD sales in the seven major markets to grow to about $25 billion annually by 2017, with a dip between 2012 and 2015 due to patent expiries of key products. The ICS/LABA class is set to remain the leading class by value throughout, while the LAMA market will experience the strongest growth, particularly in COPD.

Novartis/Schering-Plough's once-daily ICS/LABA product will be the top-selling single brand in the seven major markets in 2017. However, the combined sales of GSK's Advair franchise (Advair/Seretide and once-daily Beyond Advair) will dominate the asthma/COPD market over the next ten years.

The phase-out of CFC-containing inhalers in the US after 2008 will have a big impact on the market for short-acting beta2-agonists (SABAs), increasing this class' size significantly. The main beneficiary is expected to be Teva/UCB's Salamol/ProAir due to its favorable price compared with other marketed HFA SABAs.

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