Multiple Sclerosis - Tysabri to prevail despite safety setbacks

Spurred by uptake of Biogen Idec and Elan's Tysabri (natalizumab) and continued revenue growth for the three beta-interferon brands and Teva's Copaxone (glatiramer acetate), the seven major multiple sclerosis market value increased 15.1% from 2006 to $5.3 billion in 2007.

Despite the recent confirmation of two new cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), with a much stronger 200708 enrollment rate than previously anticipated and a greater level of confidence among opinion leaders, Datamonitor has upgraded its Tysabri's forecast.

Datamonitor remains highly positive on Novartis's FTY720 (fingolimod). FTY720 is expected to achieve the greatest sales of all current late-stage pipeline products. However, sales growth will be restricted from 2012 by the later launch of additional oral pipeline disease-modifiers, which will represent tough direct competition.

Genzyme and Bayer Schering's alemtuzumab (Campath) has been added to this latest multiple sclerosis forecast. Potentially positioned in both the earliest stages of the disease and for rapidly progressing patients refractory on other therapies, a poor perceived safety profile and an assumed low price-point, will limit returns from this market.

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