Depression - Novel drugs to grow third-line market

Datamonitor believes that companies developing pipeline drugs for the depression market should concentrate resources on targeting third-line depression patients, a market with significant sales volume and few viable treatment options. GSK's gepirone ER is likely to be the first pipeline drug to enter the market and exploit this opportunity, with forecast sales of $615m in 2016.

Of the novel pipeline drugs in late-stage development for depression, Datamonitor believes gepirone ER has the most revenue potential over the forecast period. This will be the first pipeline drug to enter the market and compete for market share with current third-line therapies, and has the considerable marketing support of GSK.

Wyeth's lifecycle management strategy of developing the Effexor reformulation Pristiq, will not successfully maintain revenues for its depression franchise following generic incursion of Effexor XR in 2010.

Agomelatine, a melatonin agonist and serotonin receptor ligand, will be a valuable treatment option for mild/moderate MDD patients with prominent sleep disorder co-morbidity or an add-on therapy for more severe MDD sufferers.

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