Asthma & COPD - Combination products still have blockbuster potential

Detailed analysis of the Asthma and COPD market. 10 year sales forecast for all major drugs brands in these indications, taking into account new treatment trends, clinical trial data, patent expirations and key new product launches in the 7 major markets.

Asthma/COPD sales in the seven major markets are expected to grow to over $24 billion annually by 2010 and drop slightly thereafter due to patent expiries of key products. The ICS/LABA class is set to remain the leading class by value throughout, while the LAMA market will experience the strongest growth, particularly in COPD.

A once-daily LABA/LAMA product should become the top-selling single brand in the seven major markets in 2016, depending on which company launches such a combination product first. However, combined sales of the Advair franchise (Advair/Seretide and once-daily Beyond Advair) will dominate the asthma/COPD market over the next ten years.

The phase-out of CFC-containing inhalers in the US after 2008 will have a big impact on the market for short-acting beta2-agonists (SABAs), increasing this class' size significantly. The main beneficiary is expected to be IVAX's (now Teva) ProAir due to its favourable price compared with other marketed HFA SABAs.

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