ADHD - Immature adult market continues to offer greatest commercial

The ADHD market is currently valued at $3.85 billion and is set to increase over the next 10 years at a CAGR of 1.2%. Despite the continuing dominance of stimulant drugs, the 2002 launch of Strattera, the first non-stimulant treatment for ADHD, and the 2006 launch of Daytrana have served to open up the market, giving patients and physicians a greater choice of treatment options.

Estimated to be twice the size of the pediatric ADHD population, the highly prevalent, yet largely untapped, adult ADHD population continues to represent an attractive niche to target. The rising awareness of ADHD brought about by marketing campaigns for Adderall XR and Strattera has paved the way for the entry of additional adult ADHD drugs.

Due to a lack of innovation, none of the forecast drugs have the potential to match the commercial success experienced by currently marketed brands. Shire's Intuniv (guanfacine) is expected to be positioned as a second-line treatment and will benefit from the company's established reputation in the market.

J&J's Concerta's strong uptake is due to its first-to-market status as a once-daily ADHD treatment. Anticipated approval for use in adult patients, combined with Adderall XR's patent expiry will see Concerta becoming the market leader by 2017. However, owing to patent litigations, the timing of Concerta's genericization remains uncertain.

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