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Alzheimer's Disease - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2015
GlobalData, the industry analysis specialist, has released a new report, "Alzheimer's Disease - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2015". The report is an essential source of information and analysis on the global Alzheimer's disease market. The report identifies the key trends shaping and driving the dynamism in the global Alzheimer's disease market. The report also provides insight on the prevalent competitive landscape and the emerging players expected to bring significant shifts in the market positioning of the existing market leaders. Most importantly, the report provides valuable insight on the pipeline products within the global Alzheimer's disease sector.
Alzheimer's Disease Market is Forecast to Show Slow Growth until 2015
GlobalData analysis shows that the global Alzheimer's disease (AD) market was valued at $5.4 billion in 2008 and is further being driven up by the ageing population. The market is expected to grow to $6.2 billion with a CAGR of 1.8% by the year 2015. Though Eisai/Pfizer's lead product Aricept will be facing generic competition, life cycle management programs such as sustained release and transdermal patch formulations will compensate the revenues of Eisai and Pfizer. The market structure is projected to change in the near future following the patent expiry of many of the leading drugs in next 2-3 years. Also, Namenda's (Forest) patent is set to expire in April 2010. The company has applied for patent term restoration which, if granted, will extend Namenda's patent protection until September 2013. Novartis's Exelon is set to expire by 2012. Due to the patent expiry of Aricept and Namenda, sales of Exelon will be affected. The pipeline for Alzheimer's disease is quite strong with disease modifying mechanisms. These products, if approved, will change the entire market scenario by 2015.
Current Market Unsuccessful in Meeting Patient Expectations
GlobalData finds that current competition is weak and the marketed products are unsuccessful in meeting the needs of the patient, leaving behind a large segment of unmet need. Current products in the market do not serve the unmet need of curing the disease. The market continues to present opportunities for stronger pipeline candidates. The current drugs are majorly attributed to the symptomatic relief of the current treatment options rather than the cure itself. The current market is mainly driven by acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and NMDA antagonists. This underexploited market holds significant market potential for any new entrants with disease modifying capability. Designing disease modifying drugs rather than drugs for providing symptomatic relief is one of key challenges for this market and could provide a significant opportunity for any company.
Potential Disease-Modifying Therapies are Likely to be Launched in the Next 10 Years
GlobalData reports that the Alzheimer's disease market landscape is changing dramatically. Potential disease modifying therapies are likely to be launched in the next 10 years. The products for AD in developmental pipeline are quite strong with over 300 molecules in various phases of clinical development. There are 2-3 first-in-class molecules in the Phase III stage of clinical development. These Phase III molecules have a distinct advantage over the current marketed players for Alzheimer's disease, in that they include many drugs with disease modifying mechanisms with higher efficacy. They may effectively compete with the current marketed players because they have novel mechanisms to target the disease with better efficacy, which will lead to better patient and physician satisfaction. The majority of these products are disease modifying therapies with a prominent ratio of product extension and proven superiority in offering therapeutic performance. If these products with disease modifying mechanisms get approved for an indication like Alzheimer's disease that relies on symptomatic treatments, the market leaders will face significant challenges to their market shares. In summary, the global Alzheimer's market is heading towards a highly competitive landscape.
Tau Inhibitors and Immunotherapy Addressing the Disease Challenge in the Pipeline Front
GlobalData has analyzed more than 300 products in different developmental stages. Bapinuezumab, Gammagard, Seroquel and Dimebon in Phase III and AL-108 (Phase II) and Rember (Phase II) are the key products currently in pipeline. Bapineuzumab and Gammagard, with features such as innovative mechanisms of action (immunological) targeting patients with Alzheimer's disease, remain the most keenly watched products in pipeline. Also, Rember (tau inhibitor), which has completed its Phase II clinical trials, is the most anticipated. Although these drugs have the potential to become the future gold standards for the treatment of Alzheimer's, they are several years away from commercialization as only 2 drugs (Bapineuzumab and Gammagard) are in phase III clinical trials. The rest of the drugs are in early stage clinical trials.
Pharma Companies Focus on Alzheimer's disease Drug Development Landscape
GlobalData has found that Eisai/Pfizer, Novartis and Forest remain the leading competitors in the global Alzheimer's disease market. Together, these companies accounted for 88% of global market share in 2008. Eisai/Pfizer remained the market leader with a share of approximately 64%. The competitive landscape is populated by 4 major products, none of which are completely efficacious in the treatment of the disease. However, companies such as Wyeth (Pfizer), Elan, AstraZeneca, Medivation and Baxter, with some of the most technologically advanced products in their pipeline portfolio, are expected to attract most of investors' attention. The global Alzheimer's disease market is expected to see intense competition in the coming years.
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