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Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2014
PharmaVitae universe Rx sales are forecast to expand at a 2008-14 CAGR of 1.2%, down 9.3 percentage points from 2002-08. The underlying cause of this falling rate is the much-discussed genericization of small molecule products. However, not all sectors are equally exposed, prompting a shake-up of the industry and an increasing pursuit of cost savings to sustain operating profit growth rates.
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The increasing assault of generics on leading pharma players' staple diet of small molecule products will prompt a shake-up of the industry. Companies' success will be heavily linked to their exposure to this generic threat, with biologics and niche players enjoying the greatest insulation and therefore often the highest growth.
Many companies not in these hot sectors of the industry will be compelled to pursue cost-cutting to maintain previous levels of operating profit growth and some may resort to M&A activity to bolster sales performance and/or strategically realign themselves.
However, recourse to M&A should not be surprising when looked at in the historical context, as this has already acted as the PharmaVitae universe's primary growth driver in the period between 2002 and 2008, accounting for a greater proportion of growth than internal R&D operations.
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