Schizophrenia - Second generation depots protect market value

Schizophrenia is a chronic and severe mental health disorder affecting around 4.6 million schizophrenia sufferers across the seven major markets. Currently led by oral branded atypical antipsychotics, the schizophrenia market will undergo some big changes over the period 2008/2017. Prospective players can expect to face stiff competition from generic versions of all currently branded drugs.

The schizophrenia market is anticipated to grow slowly until 2011 to reach $4.3 billion across the 7MM. Despite the launch of a few pipeline drugs, the market will decline thereafter owing to the widespread launch of generic risperidone by the end of 2008, followed by generic versions of all currently marketed schizophrenia drugs from 2011 onwards.

The increasing uptake of long-acting injectable (depot) atypical antipsychotics is expected to partially alleviate the branded schizophrenia sales decline. Positive effects on patient compliance will stimulate sales of these formulations which are forecast to reach a combined value of $1.2 billion by 2013.

The schizophrenia late-stage pipeline lacks innovation. Sales of most oral investigational drugs will be limited by extensive generic competition across the 7MM. However, drugs with novel mechanism of action could prove commercially successful, demanding a price premium and offering alternative treatments for refractory patients.

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